IVF Success Rates by Age: What the CDC Data Shows

Short answer: IVF success rates by age fall steadily as you get older. U.S. national data from the CDC’s National ART Summary dashboard (2022 data, published December 2024) show 42.8% of ART cycles in patients under 35 resulting in a live birth, 39.9% at 35–37, 34.9% at 38–40, and 27.7% over 40. Looked at per embryo transfer with the patient’s own eggs, live births decline smoothly from about 44% under age 30 to about 10% past 45. With donor eggs, rates hold between 37% and 46% per transfer at nearly every recipient age.

Those numbers are national averages, not personal predictions — your clinic, diagnosis, and embryo quality all shift your individual odds. But they are the most trustworthy starting point you have, because they come from every U.S. fertility clinic reporting to the CDC. This guide walks through what the CDC data actually shows, how to read the different success-rate metrics clinics quote, and what you can do to improve your chances at your age.

IVF Success Rates by Age: The CDC Numbers

The tables below use the CDC’s National ART Summary dashboard (2022 data year, published December 2024) — the most recent complete national figures, covering 435,426 ART cycles at 457 reporting U.S. clinics. The first table counts every non-banking ART cycle started; the second counts only cycles that reached an embryo transfer, using the patient’s own eggs.

*Includes fresh and frozen eggs/embryos from patients and donors; egg/embryo banking cycles excluded. Source: CDC National ART Summary dashboard, 2022 data.

†Patient’s own eggs or embryos; per embryo transfer. Source: CDC National ART Summary dashboard, 2022 data.

Three things jump out. First, the decline is continuous — there is no cliff at 35, just a slope that steepens, and the single-year transfer data shows it beautifully: each birthday from 38 onward costs roughly 2–4 percentage points. Second, the per-cycle figures fall less steeply than the own-egg transfer figures because the per-cycle measure includes donor-egg cycles, which hold steady with age. Third, by the mid-forties the gap is stark: about 1 in 10 transfers with own eggs results in a live birth past 45, versus roughly 4 in 10 under 30.

What the CDC Numbers Actually Measure

One reason IVF statistics feel confusing is that “success rate” can mean several different things. Clinics are not trying to mislead you — but the metric they quote changes the number dramatically. Here are the three you will see most often.

1. Share of ART cycles resulting in a live birth

This is the CDC dashboard’s headline metric and the number in the first table above. It counts every ART cycle started (excluding banking cycles), including cycles cancelled before retrieval and cycles using donor eggs or embryos — which is why it falls less steeply with age than own-egg-only figures. It answers: “If someone my age starts an ART cycle, what share result in a live birth?” Across all ages combined, the answer is 37.5% (USAFacts analysis of CDC data).

2. Live births per embryo transfer

This only counts cycles that reached a transfer — the number in the second table above, broken down by the patient’s single year of age. It answers a narrower question: “If I have an embryo good enough to transfer, what are my chances?” Because the hardest selection steps (retrieval, fertilization, embryo development) already happened, this number runs higher than the per-cycle figure at young ages — and the CDC reports it separately for the patient’s own eggs versus donor eggs, which is how you can see the age curve flatten completely with donor eggs. When you see a clinic advertising a strikingly high number, check whether it is per transfer.

3. Cumulative live-birth rate

This measures the chance of a live birth across multiple retrievals — typically up to three. Cumulative rates are substantially higher than single-cycle rates at every age, because each additional cycle is another chance. If you are budgeting or planning, this is the metric that matters most, and it is the one to ask your clinic about.

A quick rule of thumb: when comparing clinics or articles, always match the metric. Comparing one clinic’s per-transfer rate with another’s per-retrieval rate is meaningless. The CDC’s clinic finder tool and the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) both publish clinic-level data using standardized definitions — start there rather than with marketing headlines.

Why IVF Success Falls With Age

Age is the single strongest predictor of IVF success — stronger than any diagnosis, protocol, or clinic. The reason is biology, not technique: you are born with all the eggs you will ever have, and both their quantity and their quality decline over time.

The quality side matters most. As eggs age, the chance of chromosomal errors (aneuploidy) in each egg rises sharply, especially after 35. Aneuploid embryos are far less likely to implant, and more likely to miscarry. Studies of embryos tested with preimplantation genetic testing consistently show aneuploidy rates climbing from a minority of embryos in the early thirties to the large majority by the mid-forties. This is why a 42-year-old can have a textbook stimulation cycle, retrieve a reasonable number of eggs, and still end up with no chromosomally normal embryo to transfer — the bottleneck is producing that one normal embryo.

Quantity declines in parallel. Average eggs retrieved per cycle falls from the low teens under 35 to single digits by the early forties. Fewer eggs mean fewer embryos, fewer chances to find a normal one, and fewer frozen embryos for future transfers. Ovarian reserve tests like AMH and antral follicle count (below) measure the quantity side — they cannot measure the quality side, which is why age remains the dominant predictor even when AMH looks good.

Age vs. AMH: Is Age Really the Best Predictor?

Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and antral follicle count (AFC) measure your current ovarian reserve — roughly, how many eggs remain. A low AMH at 33 can mean a tougher cycle than a high AMH at 38, because the 33-year-old may retrieve very few eggs. For predicting how your cycle will go, AMH and AFC are genuinely useful.

But for predicting whether you will have a baby, age still wins. Here is why: AMH measures quantity, not quality. A 40-year-old with an excellent AMH will likely retrieve plenty of eggs — but those eggs are still 40-year-old eggs, with 40-year-old chromosomal error rates. Conversely, a 34-year-old with low AMH may retrieve only a few eggs, but each one has a much better chance of being chromosomally normal.

The practical takeaway: test both. Use AMH and AFC to plan your protocol (medication doses, whether to consider banking embryos), and use age-based national data to set expectations about outcomes. If a clinic quotes you odds based on AMH alone, ask how age factors into their estimate.

Cumulative Success: Your Odds Over Multiple Cycles

Single-cycle numbers understate what IVF can do, because most patients do more than one cycle. Cumulative live-birth rates — the chance of at least one live birth across several retrievals — climb substantially with each additional cycle at every age.

National data show the biggest gains come in the first two to three cycles. Under 35, cumulative success after three retrievals reaches well above the single-cycle figure; even in the late thirties, multiple cycles meaningfully raise the odds. The gains taper after that — which is why many clinics suggest reassessing strategy (including donor eggs or a protocol overhaul) after three unsuccessful retrievals with your own eggs.

Two nuances matter. First, cumulative figures assume you continue; dropout is high, often for financial or emotional reasons rather than medical ones. Second, frozen embryos from one retrieval count toward the cumulative total — a single good retrieval can produce two or three transfer chances, which is one reason per-retrieval rates can look close to per-transfer rates in younger patients. When planning, ask your clinic for its cumulative live-birth rate for patients in your age band, not just the per-cycle headline.

Donor Egg IVF Success Rates by Age

Donor eggs effectively reset the age clock. Because success tracks the egg’s age — not the recipient’s — live-birth rates per transfer with donor eggs stay between 37% and 46% at nearly every recipient age, according to the CDC’s 2022 dashboard, including for recipients in their mid-forties and beyond.

CDC national data illustrate the contrast clearly: with a patient’s own eggs, live births per transfer fall from about 44% under age 30 to about 10% past 45 — while with donor eggs, rates hold in the high thirties to mid-forties at nearly every recipient age. Recipient age is not completely irrelevant: uterine health, conditions like fibroids or polyps, and overall health still affect whether a transfer succeeds, which is why clinics evaluate the uterine cavity before a donor-egg transfer. But the age-related decline that dominates own-egg IVF largely disappears.

This is why donor eggs become the statistically strongest option after 42–43 with own eggs, and why many patients in their forties wish they had considered the option a cycle or two earlier. If you are weighing it, our guide to the donor egg IVF due date calculator explains how donor-egg pregnancies are dated (by the donor’s egg age and transfer date — your own age does not enter the calculation).

Fresh vs. Frozen Embryo Transfer Success Rates

A decade ago, fresh transfers were the default. Today, frozen embryo transfers (FET) slightly outperform fresh transfers at most ages nationally. The gap is modest under 35 and widens a little with age — roughly a few percentage points per transfer.

The reasons are practical, not mysterious. Freezing lets the uterine lining recover from stimulation and be prepared on its own schedule; it allows time for genetic testing (PGT-A) results; and the embryos that survive thawing have passed an extra selection step. “Freeze-all” cycles — where every embryo is frozen and transferred later — are now common, especially when genetic testing is planned or when ovarian hyperstimulation risk is a concern.

None of this means fresh transfers are obsolete. For some patients, a fresh transfer avoids the cost and wait of a frozen cycle. But if your clinic recommends freezing, it is following the national trend, not cutting corners — and the published data support the choice. See our frozen embryo transfer due date calculator for how FET pregnancies are dated.

Other Factors That Affect IVF Success

Age dominates, but it is not the whole story. These factors shift individual odds meaningfully:

• Diagnosis. The reason you need IVF matters. Ovulatory disorders tend to have better per-cycle outcomes than diminished ovarian reserve; severe male factor requiring surgical sperm retrieval adds its own variables.
• Embryo stage and quality. Day-5 blastocyst transfers outperform Day-3 transfers on average, because extended culture selects stronger embryos. Learn how Day 3 vs Day 5 transfer affects your timeline too.
• Number of prior cycles. Repeated implantation failure or recurrent loss prompts a different workup — and different odds — than a first cycle.
• Uterine factors. Polyps, fibroids distorting the cavity, untreated hydrosalpinx, and chronic endometritis can all reduce implantation and are often fixable before transfer.
• Weight and lifestyle. Both underweight and obesity are associated with lower success rates; smoking clearly reduces them. These are among the few levers you control directly.
• Clinic and laboratory. Embryology lab quality varies more than most patients realize. National reporting exists precisely so you can compare clinics on standardized metrics rather than marketing.

How to Improve Your IVF Success Rate at Any Age

You cannot change your age, but several evidence-backed steps can nudge the odds in your favor:

• Do not delay the workup. If you are over 35 and have not conceived after six months of trying, get evaluated promptly — the age curve rewards acting sooner.
• Optimize the modifiable factors. Quit smoking, reach a healthy weight, and review medications and supplements with your doctor. Small effects compound across the many steps of an IVF cycle.
• Consider PGT-A selectively. Genetic testing of embryos does not create normal embryos, but after 38 it can help identify which embryos are worth transferring — potentially reducing miscarriages and failed transfers. It has costs and trade-offs; discuss candidacy with your clinic rather than assuming it is always worthwhile.
• Bank embryos when young-ish. If you are in your mid-thirties and family-building will take years, freezing embryos now preserves today’s egg age for tomorrow’s transfers.
• Fix the uterus first. A hysteroscopy to remove polyps or correct cavity issues before transfer is a low-cost, high-value step many patients skip.
• Plan for more than one cycle. Financially and emotionally, patients who plan for two to three cycles from the start report less distress — and cumulative data show the second and third cycles add real odds.
• Know when to pivot. After three unsuccessful retrievals with your own eggs, or past 42–43, have an honest conversation about donor eggs. The data are unambiguous about where the odds move.

How to Read a Clinic’s Success Rates (Without Being Misled)

Clinics must report to the CDC and SART, and those standardized reports are your best comparison tool. When you read them — or a clinic’s own marketing — watch for these:

• Check the metric. Per-transfer rates flatter; per-cycle rates inform. Make sure you are comparing like with like.
• Check the denominator’s age band. A clinic whose patients skew young will post better numbers without being better. Compare your age band specifically.
• Check the sample size. A 60% success rate on 10 cycles is noise; on 500 cycles it is signal.
• Check what is excluded. Some presentations quietly exclude cancelled cycles or patients who did not reach transfer.
• Compare against the national average. A clinic far above or below the national figures for its patient mix deserves questions in both directions.

The CDC publishes clinic-level data for every reporting U.S. clinic — start with its National ART Summary dashboard for the national figures, then look up any clinic you are considering and compare its age-banded results with the national numbers in this guide.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is the IVF success rate for a 40-year-old?

At exactly 40, about 32% of embryo transfers using the patient’s own eggs result in a live birth (CDC 2022 dashboard) — roughly 36% at 38, falling to about 25% by 42 and about 16% by 44. With donor eggs, per-transfer live-birth rates stay between 37% and 46% at 40 and beyond.

How many IVF cycles does it usually take to succeed?

There is no single answer, but cumulative data show the biggest gains in the first two to three retrievals. Many patients who succeed do so within three cycles; after three unsuccessful retrievals with your own eggs, most clinics recommend reassessing the strategy, including discussing donor eggs.

Do IVF success rates differ for frozen vs. fresh transfers?

Yes — frozen embryo transfers now slightly outperform fresh transfers at most ages nationally, by a few percentage points per transfer. Freezing allows the uterine lining to be prepared independently of stimulation and gives time for genetic testing results.

Can I improve my IVF success rate after 40?

You cannot reverse the age-related decline in egg quality, but you can optimize everything around it: uterine evaluation and treatment, PGT-A embryo selection where appropriate, a healthy weight, no smoking, and planning for multiple cycles. Statistically, the single biggest lever after 42 is donor eggs, which restore per-transfer success rates to the 37–46% range.

Why do clinics report different success rates than the CDC?

Often they are quoting a different metric — usually per-transfer rather than per-intended-retrieval — or a younger patient mix. Always check the metric, the age band, and the sample size, and compare against the CDC’s standardized clinic reports rather than marketing headlines.

Are CDC IVF success rates reliable?

They are the most reliable national figures available: every U.S. fertility clinic performing ART must report its cycles to the CDC, and the data are published using standardized definitions. They describe national averages, though — your clinic’s results and your personal odds will differ based on your age, diagnosis, and embryo quality.

About the Author

Emily Johnson is a Content Writer & Fertility Advocate who covers IVF and fertility treatment topics. Meet the team.

Medical Review

This article was medically reviewed by Dr. Sarah Ahmed, Medical Content Advisor, for clinical accuracy. Meet the team.

Medical Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Due dates are estimates, and every pregnancy is different. Always confirm your due date and any testing or treatment decisions with your clinic or healthcare provider.